Indonesian presidential candidate Prabowo Subianto. (Reuters Photo/Beawiharta)
Jakarta. Presidential candidate Prabowo Subianto rebounded from his shaky showing in the first presidential debate to turn in a solid performance in Sunday night’s showdown with rival Joko Widodo, with whom he differed on ways to finance ambitious economic programs.
Both candidates espoused the same basic economic policies, but broached them in different ways, with Prabowo touting his promise to plug a budget leak that he pegged at more than Rp 1,000 trillion ($84.6 billion) a year, while Joko called for an overhaul of the system of governance to improve budget efficiency.
Joko also dwelled on the details of his policies, including new health care and education schemes, while Prabowo focused more on the macro economic picture.
“The way I see it, both candidates’ programs are not that different and we have heard and seen [their plans] before in the media,” Eric Sugandi, an economist at Standard Chartered in Jakarta, told the Jakarta Globe.
“Joko has already had experience with his programs, but the challenge [for him] lies in the visibility for the whole country. It’s different, of course [from local-level achievements].
“Prabowo, on the other hand, does not really have much experience, but his programs are more detailed with the numbers,” Eric added. “In terms of challenges, they need to pay attention to where the funding comes from and the realization of the programs during their administration. And later on, if the programs fail to be realized, then they need to able to explain what the core problems are.”
Joko took a bottom-up approach to the issue of economic empowerment, which was the theme of the night’s debate, saying an investment in human resources was the most important element of Indonesia’s economic prospects.
“Because through human development we will boost productivity and competitiveness,” he said.
“To me, economic development is done for the welfare of the people.”
Prabowo, however, took a more top-down approach, saying that the government needed to play a bigger role in creating jobs for the people and dictating economic policy, what he dubbed “the Big Push Strategy” for a more prosperous Indonesia.
“Our strategy is to stop leaks [of the budget through corruption and misuse of funds], get enough cash and invest the cash in infrastructure and other things. This will get the economic wheel rolling, it will build Indonesia’s economy,” he said.
Prabowo said one of the key points of his economic plans was agriculture, where he pledged to create up to 24 million jobs through the conversion of degraded forest land into farmland.
He also challenged Joko to reveal his target for Indonesia’s mid-term economic growth, given that the country is projected to grow by around 5 percent this year.
Joko cited a figure of more than 7 percent, which economists agreed was realistic than Prabowo’s previously cited estimates of up to 10 percent.
“I think Joko gave a more realistic perspective so far,” David Sumual, chief economist at BCA, told the Globe.
“He mentioned concrete projects such as his online system to plug the holes in the state budget, his focus on character in improving education, his efforts to simplify licensing problems for business, and his approach in prioritizing growth in the less urbanized regions of Indonesia to bolster economic growth. I also think his 7 percent economic growth target is realistic.”
David said that Prabowo, on the other hand, was “not focused yet.”
“He said the funding for the country’s development will come from plugging the holes in Indonesia’s budget but where exactly? All in all, I think both presidential candidates are still overreaching right now. They must specify,” he said.
Aldian Taloputra, an economist at Mandiri Sekuritas, agreed that Joko’s programs seemed better thought out than Prabowo’s.
“I think Joko’s programs seem to be more ready and set to be implemented, for instance when he mentioned about improvement in investment climate and that’s pretty important also to create jobs. His target for the economy, which is 7 percent, was realistic enough,” Aldian said.
“Meanwhile, for Prabowo, he was talking about plugging the holes in the country’s budget, but again he did not elaborate how he would do it. I hope he will go into more details on that. Both programs are important, but I think Joko’s programs were more detailed.”
While both candidates were at odds on their larger economic policies, they managed to agree on the need to boost the role of Indonesia’s creative industries in the wider economy.
Joko said industries like music, design and the performing arts were not getting enough support from the government, yet if marketed well could prove a huge source of revenue.
Prabowo concurred, noting that his son, a fashion designer based in Paris, was an example of how Indonesia could attain success in the creative industries.
“We have art talent, we have the creativity, this can bring in foreign reserves,” he said. “So regarding creative economy I agree with Joko,” he added, moving across the stage to shake hands with Joko and embrace him.
He also said the creative economy was “a sector in which we can be competitive with other countries. The next leader has to invest heavily in education, so that we can be more competitive.”
On education, Prabowo said the country would need at least Rp 40 trillion to implement his vision for a 12-year mandatory basic education system.
Joko said he agreed on the need to extend the system from the current nine years, but again differed with Prabowo on the source of funding, saying plugging the budget leak was approaching the problem from the wrong angle.
“The budget is there. We do not need thousands of trillions of rupiah for a sophisticated program. What we need is a system,” he said.
The solid performance by both candidates came on the heels of a new set of opinion polls that showed Prabowo closing the gap on Joko, or even overtaking him.
A poll by the Indonesian Survey Circle (LSI), conducted from June 1-9, showed Joko in the lead with 45 percent, and Prabowo trailing at 38.7 percent. The same pollster gave Joko 35.4 percent in May, and Prabowo 22.7 percent.
“The race between the presidential candidates is getting tougher,” Adjie Alfaraby, a senior researcher at LSI told reporters on Sunday.
“Both candidates still have the chance to win and beat the other.”
Meanwhile, a United Data Center (PDB) poll conducted between June 6 and 11 showed Prabowo ahead of Joko by 31.8 percent to 29.9 percent.
“Since September 2013 until the end of May this year, Joko’s electability has always been higher, but from June 6 to 11, Prabowo has come out on top,” said Agus Herta, a senior researcher at PDB.
A poll from the Center for Policy Studies and Strategic Development (Puskaptis) showed Prabowo in front with 44.6 percent and Joko trailing with 42.8 percent.
A fourth poll, from the Poltracking Institute, put Joko ahead with 46.5 percent and Prabowo with 41.1 percent.
The next debate, also featuring just the presidential candidates, takes place next Sunday.
By Josua Gantan & Muhamad Al Azhari on 11:51 pm Jun 15, 2014
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