A woman walks past a poster of Indonesia’s presidential candidates Prabowo Subianto, left, and Joko Widodo during a debate in Jakarta on June 15, 2014. Both candidates will tackle foreign policy and national defense in the June 22 debate. (Reuters Photo/Beawiharta)
Jakarta. Prabowo Subianto’s human rights record and Joko Widodo’s inexperience in foreign relations could prove stumbling blocks for Indonesia’s respective presidential candidates in Sunday’s debate on national security and international politics, experts say.
However, opinion is split on whether either politician will outline security policies that break sharply from outgoing President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono.
Political analysts have tipped terrorism, territorial integrity, pluralism and human rights to feature in Sunday’s televised debate, the third ahead of elections on July 9.
The contest comes just days after polling data released this week showed Joko’s early lead — said to be 26.6 percent in March — over former general Prabowo had been eaten away to a margin of just 4 percent. Given that neither candidate has landed a knockout blow in their two previous encounters, Sunday’s debate is seen as crucial to gaining the upper hand.
But on Friday two leading political analysts told the Jakarta Globe that when discussing national security and international relations, both candidates were vulnerable.
“Human right issues will certainly be something Prabowo tries to avoid,” said Bantarto Bandoro, a senior lecturer at the Indonesian Defense University.
“But if he knows the importance of human rights for national security as a whole, then he should put forward this issue in that context,” Bantarto said.
Bantarto said Prabowo’s own history in the military — including his role in the kidnappings of pro-democracy activists in 1997 and 1998 and his subsequent discharge from the army — could pose a problem.
“He must be very cautious in handling national security, especially when it touches the issue he is most connected with.”
On other security issues, however, Prabowo’s military background would be an advantage.
Bantarto said he believed Prabowo had “more skill” in handling issues relating to national security.
“Joko was a bit silent on the issues, indicating his lack of knowledge on matters related to national security.”
The Jakarta governor would also have to overcome the perception that he was not strong on security issues and inexperienced in international matters.
Aleksius Jemadu, dean of the school of government and global affairs at Pelita Harapan University, said Joko would try his best to counteract Prabowo’s strongman image.
“I think he will try his best to show that this perception is wrong and it remains to be seen how he is going to prove that.”
However, Aleksius said he expected Prabowo and Joko to be more decisive on national security based on their nationalism and “the view that their predecessor is too weak and soft on this issue.”
He said both candidates would be more assertive about Indonesia’s national interests and more critical and pragmatic about Indonesia’s leadership role in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.
“Jokowi will focus on Indonesia’s maritime interests and Indonesia’s role as a middle power,” he said. “Prabowo will introduce his concept of progressive foreign policy to achieve a more respectable position for Indonesia.”
By Harry Pearl on 12:30 am Jun 21, 2014
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